Downscaling Climate and Ocean Change to Services: Thresholds and Opportunities
Informations
- Funding country
Norway- Acronym
- -
- URL
- -
- Start date
- 1/1/2020
- End date
- 12/31/2024
- Budget
- 341,202 EUR
Fundings
| Name | Role | Start | End | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KLIMAFORSK - Large scale programme on Climate | Grant | - | - | 341,202 EUR |
Abstract
In CE2COAST, the project consortium aims for coordinated assemblage and analysis of observational and modelling data to deliver state, trends and variability of pressures on ocean services resulting from ocean and coastal climate and biogeochemical change at the European and global scale. At NORCE, our main task is to deliver new data and analysis on ocean and climate state using Earth system models. To achieve this, we applied a community model assessment tool to quantify biases and limitation in IPCC-class models, particularly their ability in simulating the observed climate and ecosystem drivers in regions of interest for project stakeholders. We perform analysis to determine systematic biases in these models and identify the associated mechanistic drivers. We assess how anthropogenic climate change will manifest in the ocean surface and interior. Lastly, we collaborate with regional modellers in the consortium to deliver improved projections of climate change that are relevant for management, regulatory, industrial and societal organisations. New knowledge on global model biases will be communicated to Earth system modeling community and used for developing optimum strategy for directing future model developments. In 2022, together with our international partners, we have implemented a model evaluation tool that can be tailored to specific regions of interest. This tool efficiently provides a comprehensive assessments of IPCC-class Earth system models across numerous climate variables that includes surface and interior temperature, salinity, ocean productivity, carbon fluxes, oxygen, and ocean pH among others. In addition, we have developed a methodology to investigate the emergence of anthropogenic climate change in the ocean interior. Preliminary results have been published (https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC017929) and show that changes in the interior ocean is projected to have long-term impact, even after a stringent mitigation measure is considered. Our study highlights the urgency to reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions to avoid long-lasting and potentially degrading impacts on the interior marine ecosystem.