The potential of seasonal-to-decadal-scale inter-regional linkages to advance climate predictions
Informations
- Funding country
Norway- Acronym
- -
- URL
- -
- Start date
- 1/1/2016
- End date
- 12/31/2020
- Budget
- 311,436 EUR
Fundings
| Name | Role | Start | End | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KLIMAFORSK - Large scale programme on Climate | Grant | - | - | 311,436 EUR |
Abstract
Global warming is enhanced in the Arctic, where surface air temperature has increased at twice the rate of the global average in recent decades - a feature called Arctic amplification. The rapid reduction in Arctic sea ice is the most visible indicator of global warming. In contrast to global warming, northern continents have experienced severe cold winters. The linkage between the warm Arctic and cold continents has drawn much attention. However, no consensus has been reached. On the other hand, both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans have clear multi-decadal variability. Furthermore, individual studies also suggest both Oceans influence Arctic climate. Thus, there is a need to better understand the linkages between the rapid change in Arctic climate and the climate over lower latitude regions and how these Oceans regulate the linkage. We used satellite-derived sea ice and sea surface temperature to run coordinated hindcast experiments with five different atmospheric general circulation models. The ensemble means of multi-model mean suggest that Arctic sea ice loss is not responsible for the observed cooling trend over Eurasia. By performing further analysis on each individual simulation by each model, we found that the cooling over Eurasia is more closely linked to the Arctic tropospheric warming, not surface warming (sea ice loss).