Quantifying climate Impacts of Future Forest management strategies in Norway

Informations

Funding country

Norway

Acronym

-

URL

-

Start date

1/1/2016

End date

12/31/2022

Budget

1,228,032 EUR

Fundings

Abstract

The role of boreal forests in climate mitigation Conserving and increasing the carbon uptake and stock in forests is a key mitigation measure to limit global warming in line with the ambitions of the Paris Agreement. Global emission pathways consistent with limiting the global temperature increase below 1.5°C and 2°C rely heavily on land-based measures through varying degrees of afforestation/reforestation, reduced deforestation, and bioenergy. This in turn implies significant changes to the terrestrial ecosystems. Alternative management models and land cover changes can result in different changes in the detailed characteristics of the forest, such as structure and extent. In addition to the update and release of CO2, such changes in vegetation will in turn affect climate through a range of mechanisms, including through increased or decreased surface albedo, or reflectivity. These need to be considered for a comprehensive picture of the interaction between vegetation and climate and net effects of land-based climate measures. Through the project «Quantifying climate Impacts of Future Forest management strategies in Norway (QUIFFiN)», scientists from CICERO, NTNU and NIBIO have worked to strengthen the knowledge about how vegetation changes following forest management can affect climate when considering a broad set of relevant mechanisms. Such knowledge is needed to understand the potential role of Norwegian forests for meeting the 2°C target. Several different approaches and modeling tools of varying complexity have been used, including environmental systems analysis, empirical and semi-empirical approaches, and high-resolution climate modeling. Results from the project show that large-scale vegetation changes across Europe, including Fennoscandia, can influence local temperature and precipitation, and that these effects are typically regional-specific. Analyses also highlight remaining scientific challenges, such as improved representation of snow in regional climate models for reduced uncertainty in the climate response to vegetation changes. Another study suggests that large-scale changes in forest cover can increase or decrease the amount of so-called secondary organic particles in the atmosphere, particles which affects the Earth’s energy balance. The albedo effect can be particularly important at high, northern latitudes, affecting the net climate effect of vegetation changes. However, through a critical review of existing approaches, it is demonstrated that weighting the effect of albedo changes against that due to CO2 fluxes is challenging due to spatiotemporal differences. Furthermore, calculations suggest a wide range in future scenarios for wood outtake volumes in Norway, depending on underlying assumptions about socio-economic development and climate and energy polices. Different management strategies, such as more intensive harvest and species change, can be used to meet increased demand for wood and higher outtakes. Including detailed information about forest characteristics, structure, and extent is important for quantification of subsequent climate effects. Moreover, assessing the local climate impacts of vegetation changes requires confidence in the models' ability to represent local conditions. Sustainable land management is critical in light of the many demands for terrestrial ecosystem resources, not only for climate mitigation, but also for bioeconomy, recreation, and biodiversity conservation. The outcomes from QUIFFiN contribute with knowledge of relevance for sustainable forestry in Norway.