Abstract
Few have attempted to apply population genetics to understand the fate of horizontally transferred transgenes in bacterial populations. The project seeks to apply population genetics theory to significantly advance its ability to accurately predict the fate of transgenes, if unintentionally acquired by bacterial populations. Models analyzing the effect of positive, neutral and negative selection on transgenes will be developed of particular relevance to rare horizontal gene transfers from genetically modified organisms. The relationship between bacterial population structure, size and selection, for horizontally transferred genes to accumulate or disappear from a bacterial population over time, will be of particular concern. The aim is to create a framework in which, ultimately, the invasive potential of transgenes can be evaluated prior to field release. The project extends beyond the current risk assessment of transgenes, which is focused primarily on transgene availability, as it considers explicitly the issues of transgene population dynamics. The methodological framework established in the project will thus be instrumental in ensuring adequate risk assessments of novel gene constructs prior to regulatory approval, particularly as more novel gene constructs are expected to reach commercialization.