Abstract
The project aims to understand how climate-induced changes in hydrography have affected the phytoplankton community in the past and present, and how predictions for the 21st century will affect the spreading of toxic algae in Arabian Sea. This will contribute to sustainable development in tropical countries dependent on export of marine products. Focused phytoplankton monitoring of coastal water will ensure safe bivalves, which is an environmental friendly protein source. We will define the long-term effects of the environmental changes on the composition of the phytoplankton community by analyzing oceanographic data collected during the last 50 years. Community similarity indices will be used to group taxa on a temporal basis, and the groups will subsequently be analyzed as functions of selected hydrographic parameters. We will construct coupled physical-biological model(s) to investigate and characterize the environmental variables that correlate with the initiation and development of harmful phytoplankton species, and challenge the models with simulated atmospheric/oceanographic conditions. The models emerging as the most promising will subsequently be tested and validated in manipulated mesocosm experiments. This will enable us to focus the efforts in harmful algal monitoring, and provide a model for climate impact on tropical ecosystem-a region that is lagging behind in this respect.
Sweden