Abstract
Temperature profoundly affects the seasonal timing of breeding, and thus fitness, as reproductive success declines during the breeding season. Because temperature shows yearly variation, organisms have evolved phenotypic plasticity in their breeding-time to allow them to co-ordinate breeding with seasonal fluctuations in resources. Although plasticity allows short-term adjustment to temperature changes, large-scale disruptions to these patterns (e.g. induced by climate change) are likely to require evolution of the genes governing phenotypic plasticity itself. I aim to measure the impact of temperature changes on population viability for two conservation-targeted species (the Northern Wheatear & Stitchbird) and assess whether the rate at which populations can adapt is sufficient to prevent local or regional extinction. Specifically I will: (1) estimate phenotypic and genetic variance in the timing of breeding, and compare the current rate of adaptation in these populations to that needed to avoid climate-induced population declines, (2) highlight constraints which limit the expression of adaptive phenotypic and evolutionary responses in breeding time (i.e. migration & territory acquisition) and how these might be managed, and (3) directly measure population responses to sudden large-scale changes in temperature (induced by translocation between different climate zones), and assess whether climate variables can limit the success of species translocation programs.
Sweden