Abstract
This project contributes to the understanding of plant dynamics in rural landscapes at large temporal and spatial scales. A major part of the Swedish plant diversity is associated to the agricultural landscape, especially traditionally managed semi-natural grasslands. The most common way of studying landscapes is to have a binary landscape approach, i.e. define suitable and non-suitable habitats associated with plant survival. In contrast, this project examines the landscape matrix, including semi-natural grasslands as well as secondary grasslands and new pastures (former fields). By examining different parts of the landscape matrix it may be possible to identify critical processes associated with fragmentation, isolation and habitat quality at a landscape scale. The project also examines historical land use and its effect on current and future plant diversity. Compared to spatial issues, temporal processes of habitat fragmentation are poorly understood although they are widely recognized as key for predicting future survival of species in fragmented habitats. To meet future challenges associated with species decline, land use scenarios will be modelled to predict risk of species extinction and to detect extinction debt. These models may also enable sustainable management and the identification of policy options to minimize and mitigate biodiversity loss resulting from future land use changes.
Sweden