Abstract
Habitat loss is a great threat to biodiversity. Still much work remains to quantify the effects of fragmentation. The main aim of this post-doctoral project is to provide better understanding of the long-term dynamics of an endangered beetle, Tenebrio opacus, living in large hollow trees. The number of large trees, and particularly hollow trees, has decreased substantially during the last 300 years, and it is uncertain if this species will persist in the long term. During this postdoctoral project I will (1) predict its extinction risk with a metapopulation model that incorporates habitat dynamics, (2) test if the species suffers from an extinction debt, (3) evaluate its response to possible scenarios of restoration and reintroduction, and (4) evaluate its response to different scenarios of climate change. T. opacus will be surveyed on hollow oaks in landscapes in Sweden and in central Europe. The population size and dispersal capacity will be estimated from field data. I will parameterise a spatially explicit metapopulation model based on presence/absence data for this species, and predict the long-term persistence of T. opacus populations in oak landscapes with varying density and quality of hollow oaks. I will also evaluate its response to varying scenarios of restoration and re-introductions, and different scenarios of climate change.
Sweden