Abstract
Population viability analysis (PVA) has become an increasingly popular tool in the protection and management of single threatened species. PVAs for plants are usually based on stage-structured projection matrix models and rarely on count-based data (diffusion approximation models). The general problem is that PVAs require long-term studies for accurate forecasting of population persistence, and most plant PVAs are based on short-term studies. When a species or individual populations are on the brink of extinction, a conservation strategy may include augmenting existing populations or restoring new viable populations. The objective of restoration is to establish a minimum viable population (MVP). Initially it could be difficult to establish a stable stage cohort structure, and thus to get assessments of population persistence or extinction risk. Predicting future population persistence can be done by comparing transition rates and population structure of restored populations with that of natural populations. In this project I use a long-term demographic study and a current restoration program to predict future population persistence of the threatened plant Tephroseris integrifolia. The project has two aims; first, I will compare different approaches to PVA for natural populations. Second, I combine PVAs for natural and artificial populations in a population restoration viability analysis (PRVA) in assessing population persistence and extinction risk for a threatened species.
Sweden