Abstract
Population viability analysis (PVA) has become a popular tool to identify the factors making populations vulnerable, predict future population size and make recommendations to improve the conservation status of threatened species. However, PVA is currently under debate because predictions are often inaccurate. One important reason for the lack of accuracy is that the models do not take environmental changes into account. The objective of this project is to develop methods that enable accurate assessments of population viability in changing environments. We will use a demographic modelling framework to integrate information on how abiotic and biotic environmental factors change over a successional gradient, with how these factors influence demographic vital rates (survival, growth and fecundity). This information will enable us to predict plant population dynamics in changing environments. We will apply such models to five herb species, typical for wooded meadows or rich deciduous forests in southern Sweden; Lathyrus vernus, Actaea spicata, Vicia pisiformis, Dentaria bulbifera and Polygonatum multiflorum. We will also use several methods to assess the accuracy of predictions from these and other models. This type of models will enable better identification of optimal management actions as well as applying these actions at an earlier stage of population decline.
Sweden