Process integration into multispecies and ecosystem Models for realistic evaluation of eccological, economic and social tradeoffs

Informations

Funding country

Norway

Acronym

COFASP

URL

-

Start date

1/1/2016

End date

12/31/2019

Budget

298,890 EUR

Fundings

Abstract

The functioning of marine ecosystems depends on an amalgam of interacting biotic and abiotic factors which shape trophodynamic structure and function, and maintain diversity and integrity. These interactions call for an integrated approach to providing advice for the management of living marine resources as expressed in recent policy shifts from single-, to a multi-species and ecosystem-based context. Although ecosystem considerations have become intrinsic to policy objectives and management needs as expressed in the implementation of the MSFD or the reform of the CFP, considerable advancement is necessary in the tools needed to provide robust, ecosystem-based management advice accounting for socio-economic factors. In this context, different models have been developed during the last decade to simulate ecosystem complexity from diverse perspectives allowing both strategic as well as tactical management decisions. The overall aim of PRIME TRADEOFFS is to integrate the existing, significant knowledge on recruitment processes, species interactions, fishing socio-economics and environmental impacts into the key multispecies and ecosystem modelling approaches applied in fisheries- and ecosystem based management in European waters and to apply the models for assessing the tradeoffs between resource use efficiency and carbon foodprint. The major questions raised in PRIME TRADEOFFS are (i) how the integration of environmentally-driven variability in recruitment and spatial distribution affect short term predictions of economically important fish species, (ii) how the inclusion of environmental variability changes our perceptions of tradeoffs between utilization of different resources, including for example fuel costs and effects on targeted species, and economic as well as energy efficiency (iii) how ththe tradeoffs in the fish supply chain determine long term trends of the supply-demand dynamics. To answer these questions, PRIME TRADEOFFS integrated existing data on environmentally-driven recruitment, spatial heterogeneity (including the predators? feeding responses and growth) , energy and activity patterns, i.e. time spent and fuel consumed while fishing vessels are navigating and fishing), as well as socio-economic information within multi-species models to make short-term predictions, and ecosystem and socio-economic models to make long-term predictions and to generate estimates of indicators not captured by the multispecies models. PRIME TRADEOFFS applied the improved models to produce scenarios in their relevant socio-economic management context at regional scale, in order to account for regional costs of fuel, salaries, distances to ports and so further. The datasets needed to address density-dependent growth and changes in distribution for Baltic cod have been compiled and analyse. A new multispecies model has been developed and applied to understand the appearance of lean cod in the Eastern Baltic Sea. Two Atlantis end-to-end ecosystem models have been set up and applied for the first time for the Baltic Sea and the Barents Sea case studies and are available beyond the project?s lifetime. In the Bay of Biscay, fishing activity?s fuel dependency and its associated greenhouse emissions were assessed, and revenues by species has been analysed to determine variations in fish prices within functional groups and input time series for revenue modelling. We develop an economic model based on economic network theory that explicitly describes interactions between main players in the seafood market. PRIME TRADEOFFS has actively disseminated its results to the scientific community via conference presentations and peer-reviewed journal publications and to key stakeholders, including fishing companies, industry and fishery assessment working groups and managers. Additional information about the project is available at the project website http://prime.dtuaqua.dk .