Resilience and adaptive capacity of arctic marine systems under a changing climate

Informations

Funding country

Norway

Acronym

RACArctic

URL

-

Start date

1/1/2015

End date

12/31/2020

Budget

231,609 EUR

Fundings

Abstract

Increasing CO2 in the atmosphere has resulted in rapid warming of the Arctic, melting of sea ice and increased CO2 in the ocean causing the water to become more acidic (called ocean acidification). Within the RACArctic Project, a team of natural scientists, economists and social scientists from Japan, the United States and Norway compared future climate change impacts on the ecosystem in the Atlantic and Pacific gateways to the Arctic. Representatives from the fishing industry, regional fisheries management bodies, governments and coastal communities from the 3 nations also participated. Under future climate change ocean temperatures will increase, sea ice coverage will decrease or disappear, surface salinity is expected to decrease and there will be stronger vertical density stratification, resulting in reduced wind mixing. Light levels will increase due to early ice retreat and less sea ice. Primary production will occur earlier due to earlier retreat of sea ice and last longer but sea-ice associated algal production will diminish. The species composition of zooplankton communities in the northern Barents will shift from large-bodied and typically lipid-rich zooplankton to smaller and less nutritious zooplankton species meaning less energy available for fish. Atlantic cod in the Barents Sea are expected to move farther north and recruitment and growth will remain relatively high. The cod fishery will continue to do well although the cod fleet may have to travel farther to obtain their catch. Climate change in the Arctic will have a profound effect on human inhabitants in the region through coastal erosion and disruption or loss of traditional transportation routes, both on the water and land. However, new opportunities will be created for others including increased commercial ship traffic through the Arctic gateways, an expanding tourist traffic, and the potential for opening of new oil, gas and mineral fields for extraction. RACArctic results indicate that new science will be essential in order to rapidly respond to environmental changes. Ecosystem-based management across species will play a bigger role to meet the climate change challenges as the systems change and evolve. Flexible management that minimizes unnecessary restrictions are needed to enable effective adaptation. If changes to fish stocks and the ecosystems of the Barents Sea remain close to the range of past variability, existing management systems are likely to be resilient to such changes without need for far-reaching adaptation. If, however, environmental changes disrupt the assumptions underlying the management systems, it will be difficult to achieve management goals without major shifts in the management structure or the composition of the fishing fleets. Results are being summarized in 4 comparative scientific papers: (1) An introduction to the RACArctic Project; (2) the physical and chemical changes in the atmosphere and ocean of the Arctic gateways; (3) the impacts of these changes on the ecology, including fish populations; and (4) their management implications. These papers are near completion and will be submitted shortly to an international scientific journal. In addition, a summary document for Stakeholders is also in preparation.