Abstract
In order to understand, and predict, the effects of climate change on the temporal and spatial scales relevant to the needs of society, we need approaches that enable us to scale up from detailed mechanistic studies of the effects on local ecological processes to landscape-scale or even regional-scale consequences. This project develops new methods that integrate observational and experimental approaches across broad-scale climate gradients to explore how climate, and climate change, affects the role of seed recruitment across four levels of organization - from direct physiological effects via demographic responses to population and community dynamics. We focus on the seed regeneration stage because this is a key event in the life-histories of plants that affects their ability to disperse, to evolve, and to persist under unfavorable conditions. We therefore hypothesize that any impact of climate change on this life-history stage is likely to have strong effects on the fates of local populations and communities. The ambitious goals will be achieved by a joining the forces of two strong ecological research groups in Norway with broad expertise in the ecological effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems (EECRG and NINA) in an interdisciplinary collaboration with experts on down-scaling climate data in complex landscapes (met.no). International partners will contribute expertise on the effects of environmental change on different levels of ecological organization, from ecophysiology (Royal Botanical Gardens, UK) via populations (Charles University, CZ) to communities and ecosystems (University of Michigan, USA). This project will provide a new methodological framework for integrating population, community, and landscape ecology in environmental change research. The results will have implications for habitat management and nature conservation strategies under a changing climate.
Norway