Abstract
Climate change (CC) will affect a multitude of interlinked processes within agroecosystems, including economic consequences. The project will use an established cluster of economic and natural scientific models (ECECMOD) to explore the CC effects on agriculture in Norway. ECECMOD is well suited for such purposes, since weather data are used as driving variables for its models of soil physics and biology, plant growth and soil erosion. A dedicated and experienced interdisciplinary team of researchers behind ECECMOD allows us to be operative from day one. The models have been parameterized for four regions, covering 10% of the farmed area in Norway. Refinements, validation efforts and new model developments will be performed, regarding simulations of plant growth, tillage effects, soil erosion, greenhouse gas emissions and pesticide use. In cooperation with meteorologists, global change driven weather scenarios (dynamic downscaling) will be used as input data for the models. Uncertainty will be addressed throughout such simulations. Coupled atmospheric chemistry and transport models will be used to simulate ozone damage on crops. The resulting crop production functions are used in the economic models to simulate farmers choices and the economic performance. Alternative economic scenarios will be constructed, to explore the effects of expected structural changes in agriculture in the comming decades.
Norway