Abstract
Climate change may have profound effects on insects that cause widespread tree mortality and have significant impacts on forest ecosystems. The spruce bark beetle (<i>Ips typographus</i>) is by far the most aggressive and serious insect pest on mature trees in Eurasia, including Norway. The exact factors triggering outbreaks of the spruce bark beetle are not fully understood, but climatic variables significantly influence population levels. A general temperature increase may, for example, lead to a northward expansion of the areas experiencing two beetle generations per year (bivoltism). The project aims at increasing our understanding of how climatic factors influence the risk of bark beetle outbreaks through tempo-spatial analyses of a data set from a 23-year monitoring programme in southern Norway. The distribution of bivoltism and the risk of damages by the spruce bark beetle will be estimated under various scenarios of climate change. The results will be made available for economical modelling and forest management adaptations in various districts of Norway.
Norway