Abstract
The archipelago of Svalbard was almost completely ice-covered during the last glaciation. The most thermophilous plants occuring there today must therefore have arrived postglacially by long-distance dispersal. Such species (e.g. dwarf birch, arctic blueberry) are probably relics from the hypsitherma, which was 1-2° C warmer than today. Climate models predict an increase of the average temperature by 3-3,5° C from 1990 to 2070 in Svalbard. Thus, even more thermophilous species may establish, given that they are able to cross the oceans. Species such as mountain birch, grey willows, and blueberry dominate more southern ecosystems and will cause ecological cascade effects if they succeed to establish in Svalbard. The project will use molecular markers (AFLPs, DArTs, transposon displays, cpDNA markers), genotype assignment tests, and phylogenetic analyses to identify source areas and frequency of previous immigrations of plant species to Svalbard, to estimate dispersal abilities of putative immigrant species that have not yet arrived, and to compare the likelihood for successful immigrations of species that are bird-dispersed, and without particular adaptations. The research team combines molecular, phylogeographic, and paleoclimatological expertise and will train one post-doc, one PhD, and several MAs.
Norway