Abstract
Many floodplain plant species have declined in abundance over the past century due to habitat loss and reductions in dispersal via waterways. Furthermore, climate change, through higher temperatures in the Alps and increased precipitation in winter, will continue to significantly affect the survival of populations with altered flood timing, duration and frequency. On a positive note, many plant species show signs of resilience, delaying local extinction for long but finite periods. Plastic expression of e.g. flood tolerance and seed dispersal related plant traits is an important mechanism of such resilience, but the direct and indirect consequences of phenotypic plasticity for population dynamics are poorly understood. I therefore propose to investigate how plant populations buffer fluctuations and trends in their local environment through phenotypic plasticity, and to what degree spatial escape through dispersal and colonization of new habitat can be a successful alternative. Insight into the potential for dispersal and for phenotypic plasticity in demographic and dispersal traits to buffer population abundances are fundamental, stretch beyond the floodplain case and are of great interest for conservation and restoration efforts. I will study population dynamics under past, present and a range of future climate regimes and landscape use scenarios with both analytical and simulation models that explicitly incorporate environment-trait, trait-trait and trait-life history relationships.
Netherlands