Abstract
Most forests in the tropics are currently under attack of human-driven deforestation. Within the deforestation process, fire is used as a cheap tool to eliminate (leftover) biomass, releasing greenhouse gases such as CO2 and CH4 to the atmosphere. The use of fire is for a large part restricted to periods when fuels are dry enough to burn, so fire can only be used on a large scale when there is a distinct dry season. On an annual basis, deforestation fires emit CO2 equivalent to approximately 15% of global fossil fuel emissions. During El Niño years, this number can be significantly higher due to drought in the tropics, and humans taking advantage of this drought to more efficiently use fire to eliminate biomass. Most deforestation studies have focussed on socio-economic factors that ultimately drive deforestation. Here I show however, how climate may play an under-appreciated role in controlling deforestation rates and practices, because of the importance of fire. I propose to further investigate links between climate and fire-driven deforestation using satellite measurements of fires and precipitation, and assess how regional deforestation rates and practices may change in the future as a result of changing precipitation regime in deforestation regions. This could be a result of changing global climate and because of deforestation-driven changes in regional climate. The first part of the proposed research will therefore address relations between precipitation characteristics and deforestation rates; in the second part will I examine how this may change in the future. The main objective will be to assess whether future climate enhances or diminishes the use of fire as a tool for deforestation, influencing the build-up of atmospheric CO2 and CH4. Several future deforestation scenarios will be presented, and the amount of CO2 released will be quantified using a biogeochemical model.
Netherlands