Abstract
We will study diversity changes in terrestrial pollen assemblages, and derived estimates of plant taxa, in paleovegetation along three long-term time axes. We use new insights in possible chaotic behavior of multi-taxa systems. Parallel to this, we will analyze the same diversity changes as function of the principal parameters of global change (precipitation, pCO2, caloric insolation, and temperature). We use a pollen assemblage as a momentum of a permanent plot, and we will analyze the relationship between changes in permanent plot signature (= downcore changes in the pollen assemblages) and principal parameters of global change. Our intention is to use pollen records to understand the predictability of effects of global change on floral diversity. Working along this line we explore the potential of pollen records for scenario building of Andean biodiversity change in the coming centuries. For this purpose we will use pollen records with very high temporal resolution from three intervals (Holocene and Holocene-analogue stages of MIS5 and MIS11) from climate-sensitive cores at 2550 m above sea level in the Andes.
Netherlands