Abstract
The analysis of the long-term effects of climate change on bog ecosystems requires a model that includes interactions between plant species and feedbacks between vegetation, hydrology and soil. We recently developed a process-based model describing the plant species composition and carbon accumulation of peat bogs in relation to changes in climate and environment. This model is the first model for bog ecosystems that includes vegetation dynamics. However, the current version of the model has limited possibilities due to large uncertainties with respect to the parameter values (properties) of the species included. The proposed co-operation between palaeo-ecologists and experimental plant ecologists provides unique opportunities for improving, validating and applying this NUCOM-BOG model. Data on properties of the Sphagnum species, such as minimum nitrogen requirements, decomposition rates and evaporation characteristics, supplied by project 2, will be used to improve the model. Next, data on the historic species composition and carbon accumulation, supplied by project 1, will be used to validate the improved model by comparing model output with data from the peat cores for the past 300 years for which climate input data are available. Finally, the model will be applied to analyse the long-term effects of climate change on plant species composition and carbon sequestration in bogs, both in the past and in the future.
Netherlands