Abstract
Climate changes is expected to have a major influence on species distributions (e.g., range shifts), but a general mechanistic theory is lacking. The central unknown concerns the time delays with which both the leading and the trailing edges of species distributions will track climate change. We aim to investigate theoretically the effect of climate change using a meta-population approach, building on recent insights in delayed responses of meta-populations to environmental change. The model will be based on the actual processes occurring at each edge. Various assumption will be tested about: 1. the characteristics of the species (e.g., dispersal propensity and dispersal distance) and their habitats (e.g., frequency of disturbance) as expressed in the main meta-population parameters (amount of available habitat, local extinction rate and colonization rate). 2. which of these parameters are affected by climate change at what speed. Attention will be paid to crucial differences in relevant processes and/or tracking speeds between the leading and the (until now largely ignored) trailing edge of a distribution. Such asymmetries may cause narrowing or widening of distributions, or even extinction. Both single species and multi-habitat/multi-species landscapes will be modeled, making it possible to investigate how communities and interactions between species will be changed. We will also investigate the consequences of recent landscape changes (fragmentation or dispersal deterioration) that possibly hamper climate tracking and imply meta-populations that are already out of equilibrium. It is expected that in this way insight can be gained in the delayed ways in which species and communities react to climate change.
Netherlands