Abstract
Climate change is already, and is expected to continue to be, a major cause of changes to species’ abundances and distributions, and hence to their conservation status. This studentship will assess the distribution of risks and benefits to species, identify areas where species are at greatest risk in GB, Europe and North Africa (hereafter, ‘Europe’), and evaluate how practical conservation strategies need to be adjusted to accommodate changes and minimise risks. The student will assess whether priority species and priority areas are consistent between national and continental scales, how this varies with different levels of climate change, and whether the conclusions are consistent between different taxonomic groups.
1. Risk/opportunity assessment for European birds. The student will conduct climate change risk/opportunity assessments at continental and national scales for all European bird species, using alternative climate change scenarios and Birds in Europe datasets. The student will further develop and then use a robust risk assessment framework (Thomas et al. 2011), which combines projected and already-observed responses to climate change.
2. From biogeography to conservation. Using analyses from 1, the student will identify:
(i) ‘Risk hotspots’ that support disproportionate numbers of species predicted to be endangered by climate change,
(ii) ‘Refugium hotspots’ where species are most likely to be able to survive,
(iii) ‘Opportunity hotspots’ as locations relevant for management aimed at facilitating spread,
(iv) ‘New priority species’ for which Europe and individual regions may in future hold more of the world population, and
(v) ‘New colonists’ for which Europe and individual regions will become suitable.
Analysis of existing and potential future conservation priorities will identify which current priorities are robust or need modification. The project will evaluate new habitat creation, restoration and management requirements, and identify potential target species for assisted colonisation.
3. Butterflies and plants. It is crucial to know to what extent a bird-focussed strategy would serve the interests of other taxa. Therefore, steps (1) and (2) will be repeated for butterflies and selected groups of plants, for which pan-European distribution data are available, to examine the degree of consistency in adaptation options across taxa.
The project aims to develop a motivated, multi-skilled student, capable of undertaking cutting edge research of global significance, and equally comfortable with the world of evidence-based policy making. The project will be based at the University of York (supervisors Prof Chris Thomas and Dr Colin Beale) in collaboration with the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (CASE partner, supervisor Dr Richard Bradbury) and the British Trust for Ornithology (supervisor Dr James Pearce-Higgins). The project will suit students with interests in the analysis and modelling of biodiversity data, climate change, and conservation, and personal skills suited to the development of a collaborative project.
United Kingdom