Abstract
We aim to construct a spatial multi-species ecosystem model focused on commercially exploited fish in the northern European shelf (47 to 62 degrees N, and -12 to 10 degrees E). Species or functional groups within the model will be placed within a hierarchy of biological detail. At the highest, or structured , level of detail the target species will be represented by interacting length-structured populations in which the processes governing individual growth, predation, reproduction, and mortality are fully specified. At an intermediate level will be unstructured ecosystem elements, such as benthic invertebrates and zooplankton, that are represented dynamically but without life history detail. At the lowest level of detail we will have the drivers of top predators (cetacean and seabird) and fishing mortality, which are not modelled but provide forcing functions to the rest of the ecosystem. The model will be run at various spatial scales, from a series of linked regional models through to medium-scale grid covering the entire domain. The physical environment will be obtained from an ocean circulation model, with temperatures used to drive temperature-dependent process such as growth rate, and flows determining the transport of plankton zooplankton and fish larvae. The model will be parameterised using fishing survey data, and estimates of zooplankton and benthic production, and estimates of consumption by top predators. Due to the potential for ecologically and commercially important impacts by top predators a joint proposal (for a tied studentship) will aim to produce improved spatial estimates for these drivers. Free parameters will be estimated by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We will draw on a range of computational innovations developed at Strathclyde University for dealing with explicitly spatial models of populations with life history structure and growth variability. We will use the Ecopath software as an aid to constructing regional budgets for mass transfer between the species in our system, and which can then be compared to those predicted by our model. Our modelling approach differs substantially from alternative ecosystem modelling methods, such as Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE), that are frequently advocated as the way forward for ecosystem-based management in fisheries. A key part of our proposal is therefore a comparative study involving EwE regional ecosystem models, with a view to identifying the strengths and weaknesses of alternative methodologies.
United Kingdom