Abstract
Human-induced changes in land use and climate are considered major threats to the long-term survival of numerous species, and recent studies have shown that effects of climate and land use interact and depend on local habitat conditions. Successful conservation will critically depend on our ability to a) predict the interaction between such large-scale drivers, and b) downscale effects, accounting for local habitat, population size and genetic variation. In this project, we will use a combination of existing long-term demographic data, new field experiments, and population genetic analyses to address these aims. Specifically, we will 1) conduct comparative demographic analyses on 13 orchids to explore the predictability of effects of changes in climate and land use across species and sites, 2) determine the structure of genetic variation in two contrasting systems (Gymnadenia conopsea - Nigritella nigra), and link genetic variation, degree of inbreeding, inbreeding depression and population size and viability, and 3) assess the magnitude and scale of local adaptation at early life stages in these systems. We will use the resulting information to develop tools to predict both direct and indirect effects of climate change, accounting for local habitat and population characteristics. Finally, we will suggest methods to implement such information into Species action plans, facilitating flexible management practices that alleviate negative effects of climate and land use change.
Sweden