Abstract
Forests may face an increased risk of insect damage as a result of climate change. Can forest management mitigate such risks? This project intends to review literature and develop a conceptual model regarding changes in damage risk by major insect pests (e.g. bark beetles, pine weevils) under new forest management methods (i.e. continuous cover forestry, intensive forestry, mixed forests and no thinning). In addition, we will conduct experiments in the field using one model system - the European pine sawfly. This pest species is easy to work with experimentally and good basic knowledge about its biology exists. We will primarily focus on studying the effect of mixed forests, mainly because it will be easy to find suitable sites and there is a solid theoretical basis, concerning how biodiversity may be linked to ´natural bio-control´, to start from. However, the results will be applicable also to other forest management methods as the effects on especially natural enemies would be expected to be similar. The empirical work will include controlled experiments and observations in the field that quantify the relationship between biodiversity and natural enemy pressure, after measuring the important mortality factors in different types of forests. Lastly, we will use the forest management modeling tool Heureka to quantify the costs of different alternatives and formulate recommendations in collaboration with representatives from forestry, ngo:s and social sciences.
Sweden