Abstract
The project will analyze effects of carbon storage efforts on vegetation, local livelihoods and wildfire risk. The studies will take place in East Africa, in grazed forests and natural pastures projected for forest restoration to increase carbon storage. Despite the need for restoration, a sudden large-scale land-use conversion focused on carbon storage might create unexpected negative side-effects, e.g. on livelihoods, biodiversity and fuel build-up. One possibility is that fire-risk increases, both due to fuel accumulation and social discontent. This might jeopardize both the permanence of carbon storage and the long-term productivity of the land. The project will: 1) quantify carbon storage and fuel build-up under carbon storage efforts (grazing- & fire exclusion) and compare this with current land-use, 2) analyze historical landuse- and fire regimes using aerial photos, 3) analyze the effects of carbon storage on local- livelihoods and attitudes through qualitative interviews with local pastoralists, 4) analyze trade-offs between carbon storage and biodiversity, and 5) model long-term carbon storage at the landscape level, using the collected data (both ecological and livelihood data) and a risk assessment, in combination with climate data, digital elevation models and different land-use scenarios. The results will aid management decisions in order to minimize future risks, and increase our understanding of long-term carbon sequestration in a socio-ecological context.
Sweden