Abstract
In the coming years, the Swedish Forest Agency will conduct yet another Forest Impact Analysis (FIA). FIA aims to describe the consequences of scenarios of future forestry policy. For long, the economic consequences have been studied, e.g. on wood production. In the last FIA, the environmental consequences were solely quantified using a few structural biodiversity indicators. Modern, national FIA should also compare viabilities of species among the scenarios. An appropriate approach to compare species viability among scenarios is population viability analysis, which includes a model for population dynamics. However, developing such a model is usually a long or costly process. We will investigate how applying simple population models based on readily available data may affect conclusions about future species viabilities among forestry scenarios. First, we will develop population models based on data collected using a systematic sampling design. Second, we will develop simple population models based on species observation data reported to open-access websites ? citizen science data. Third, we will investigate how projections of future species viabilities differ among forestry scenarios using the models developed. An important question is if the two model-types give different messages about future species viability. We will use the scenarios for the planned FIA and alternative scenarios. Finally, we will implement models into widely used forestry planning software.
Sweden