Abstract
Extinction of biological diversity is a natural process. However, the extent to which biodiversity is currently threatened with extinction is of major environmental concern because it is thought to be much higher than expected in the absence of human activity. Global recognition of the seriousness of this problem is apparent from the growing number of initiatives to reduce biodiversity loss (e.g. IUCN Red List, Conservation International). Despite this, a series of knowledge gaps that retard progress remain. Taxonomic coverage of threat assessments remains poor, biodiversity metrics underlying these assessments are not standardised and therefore not stable and we know alarmingly little about why some lineages face greater threat than others. I will address these issues by developing a protocol for studying extinction that integrates how biodiversity is patterned and evolves with current threat. Specifically, I will test the hypothesis that greater threat levels are found in lineages already in evolutionary decline. I will apply my approach to mammals, birds, gymnospermous plants and palms. General support for the hypothesis will for the first time provide a means for predicting extinction threat in organisms for which assessments are lagging. If human activities are exacerbating their decline, conservation action plans for targeting these lineages can be developed, since they will have limited chances of rebounding.
Sweden