Abstract
The long-term goal for this research is to develop tools for managing declining populations in the face of land use changes and climatic changes. Within the applied project we will elaborate and implement a method for producing realistic forecasts of population growth and extinction risk in a changing environment. Many of the most serious threats to biodiversity are associated with long-term trends in environmental factors and most populations of rare and threatened species occur in environments that are under change. In contrast, current tools to diagnose and predict the long-term viability of population are applicable only to constant or stochastic environments. The project therefore strives to fill this important gap. It will facilitate efforts to forecast population declines in changing environments and provide tools that can better guide management actions. We will use extensive field data, experiments, and new modelling techniques to accomplish four main objectives for a set of plant species. First, we will link the performance of plant individuals and populations to environmental factors. Second, we will predict changes in key environmental factors influencing species performance. Third, based on this information we will assess population viability under different scenarios of environmental change. Fourth, we will implement methods in practical conservation to forecast the viability of red-listed plants and suggest management options.
Sweden