Abstract
Environmental variables, such as the quality and fragmentation of habitats, may have an important effect on invasion success and distribution pattern of an invading species. In Sweden, little or no research has focused on species invasions. This is partly because we have not suffered from large extinction events as a result of invading species, as has been seen in ecosystems in Australia and New Zealand. However, with ongoing climate change, increased shipping of goods and increased mobility of people, Sweden is likely to expect an increasing risk of species’ invasions in the future. The aim of this study is to gain knowledge about the pattern of which an invading insect species move through the fragmented landscapes of Sweden and how different landscapes affect colonisation success and population spread. This will be done by using a long-time data set from earlier bush-cricket introduction experiments (18 years of detailed data collected) together with field and molecular data collected from new experimental introductions close to the species current expanding distribution range. The distribution data will be analysed using GIS maps where both temporal and spatial variables are incorporated and predictive models will be developed using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Dispersal studies will include field observations, population genetic analyses as well as modelling.
Sweden