Abstract
The project has two aims: to develop new methods for fitting simulation models of metapopulation dynamics, and to provide guidelines to conservation authorities and forestry for the conservation of the study species. The models are intended for population viability analysis (PVA) of metapopulations that live in dynamic landscapes. The methods will not require data from repeated surveys, which are typically used for fittng metapopulation models. Study species are the red-listed epiphytic moss Neckera pennata, and the epiphytic lichen Lobaria pulmonaria. They are confined to trees which are dynamic habitat patches. The first method is for modelling dynamics between single trees. I will use Bayesian statistical modelling, and apply the so called back-calculation technique. It was developed in epidemiology but has never been tested in ecology. The second method is for modelling dynamics between stands in a landscape. The model is fitted based on simulations of epiphyte dynamics across a known historic landscape scenario.
Sweden